AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Continues to Hesitate

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 01.09.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but continues to struggle with the 0.65 level. At this point, we ended up forming a bit of a shooting star again, just as we did during the Wednesday session. The 0.65 level is an area that previously has been important, and it now looks as if it is going to remain that way. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that the jobs number comes out on Friday and that is a major influence as to where things go from here.

All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to move back and forth with the idea of global growth, which of course is a bit of a mess at the moment. The Australian dollar is highly sensitive to commodity markets, which of course are also influenced by the Asian markets. Underneath, the 0.64 level could be an area that a lot of people pay close attention to, and if we break down below there, then the market probably goes down to the 0.6250 level.

Alternatively, if we were to break above the top of the shooting star from the Wednesday session, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 50-Day EMA, and then perhaps to the 0.66 level after that. That’s an area that I think would be a very difficult level to overcome. Quite frankly, we would need to see a very poor jobs number on Friday to make that happen anytime soon. After all, people are starting to look around the world and try to determine whether or not the Federal Reserve could start loosening its monetary policy. If it does, that obviously would be good for the Aussie, or perhaps more specifically, bad for the US dollar.

In general, I think this is a market that is setting up for a consolidation range, but if we can break out of the area, then we could have a bigger move given enough time. Ultimately, I do think the downside works a little easier than the upside, but we will have to wait and see how that plays out.

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