AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Continues to Pressure The Upside

Christopher Lewis
Published: May 14, 2024, 11:58 GMT+00:00

The Aussie continues to pressure the upside overall at this point, but still has to deal with a major resistance barrier just above current trading levels. I suspect we are going to finally see some conclusion soon.

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Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar initially pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Tuesday only to turn around and show signs of strength. Ultimately, the market is likely to continue to see the 0.6650 level as a ceiling and at this point in time, it is more likely than not to continue to pay close attention to that area. If we could break above it, it would obviously be very bullish. But I don’t necessarily believe that happens easily. So, in the meantime, I anticipate that we are going to go sideways more than anything else using the 200 day EMA underneath as a support level. So, at this point in time, it’s more likely than not going to be a chop fest.

Ultimately, if we can break above the 0.6650 level, then we could see the Australian dollar open up a move to the 0.69 region. On the other hand, if we break down below the 200-day EMA, then we could go looking to reach the 0.645 zero level. The 0.645 zero level is a massive floor, so if we were to break back through that, it would obviously be extraordinarily negative. All things being equal.

This is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noise in both directions, mainly due to the fact that the Australian dollar is so highly correlated to commodities. But at the same time, the US dollar is very attractive with its higher than usual interest rate, at least in comparison to other currencies. So, with that, I think you continue to see a lot of choppy sideways action.

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About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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