AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Continues to Swim Upstream

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar had a reasonably strong day early on Friday as we continued to plow higher. We are between the 50 and the 200 day EMA indicators, and this generally is an area where you would expect to see a lot of noise, as there will be a lot of technical traders involved here.

Ultimately, I don’t necessarily think that it means anything other than this is a market that is trying to get back to equilibrium. Remember, we recently broke down below the bottom of a fairly well defined consolidation area, but then popped back above it. We now find ourselves right in the middle of that previous consolidation area, so I still think it’s a fairly neutral pair despite the fact that has been volatile.

That being said, though, all you have to do is look around the world and see plenty of volatile states, not just here. So, with that, I think you’ve got a situation where market participants will continue to look at this through the prism of the US dollar would be my guess. If the US dollar starts to strengthen against everything, then you will feel it here.

If we do break above the 200 day EMA, we may find ourselves going to the 0.6650 level above, which was the top of overall consolidation. On the other hand, if we turn around and fall, then the 0.6450 level wins the previous support that a lot of people will be paying attention to. While this has been an impressive move, we are now just basically fair value for where we’ve been all year.

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