AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Continues to Test Lows of Range

Christopher Lewis
Published: Apr 15, 2024, 13:00 GMT+00:00

The Aussie has fallen to test the bottom of the overall range. The Monday session saw the Aussie bounce a bit to show signs of relief. Whether or not this is a sign of a change remains to be seen.

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Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie has bounced slightly during the trading session on Monday as the 0.6450 level is an area that offered a lot of support previously, and the fact that we have seen the War in the Middle East at least not expand any further than it could have is a sign that there might be a little bit of risk taking.

That being said though, there are a lot of signs that the US dollar is going to strengthen against other major currency pairs. So, I’ll pay attention to the 0.6450 level. And if we can break down below there, especially on a daily close, then I would be more than willing to short this pair, perhaps aiming for 0.63. A recovery at this point doesn’t prove itself to me until we get well above the 50 day EMA. And even then, I would need to see the US dollar weakness in general. I think this is probably less about the Aussie at the moment and more about the US dollar. So that’s how I’ll have to trade it. Keep in mind that this is a market that has been range bound for some time. So, once we do break out, there could be a bit of momentum regardless of the direction.

But right now, it certainly looks as if the sellers are becoming more and more aggressive thereby putting more likelihood to the downside. Again though, I want to see a daily close below this level to get short at this point in time. However, I would also continue to short this pair on a bounce higher that shows signs of exhaustion.

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About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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