AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Quiet to Kick Off the Week

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 04.07.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has been very quiet on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. The 50-Day EMA sits just above, showing signs of resistance. Ultimately, this is a market that I think given enough time will probably have to squeeze out of this little range we are in, but currently it looks as if the 0.66 level underneath could be a major support level. If we were to break down below the 0.66 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to the 0.64 level. That would be the so-called “measured move” from the previous consolidation range.

If we were to turn around and break above the 50-Day EMA, then we could go look into the 200-Day EMA after that. Above there, then we have the 0.68 level, which was the top of the previous consolidation area before. That being said, this is a market that is going to continue to be very noisy, especially as we have a lot of questions as to what the global economy is going to be doing in the future. All things being equal, this is a market that continues to be very noisy, and therefore I think you have to assume that the Australian dollar will continue to be noisy as well. I need to see some type of impulsive candlestick in order to put money to work, so it can give us an idea as to where we are going to go for a bigger move. In the meantime, I think you need to be very cautious with your position sizing and recognize that we probably get a lot of back and forth more than anything else.

Keep in mind that Tuesday is Independence Day in the United States, so that will also keep the market somewhat choppy and noisy as well, so with that being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a lot of hesitation and uncertainty, but given enough time, I do think that we will have to make that bigger decision. A little bit of patience probably goes a long way, to keep that in mind.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.