AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Recovers to Start Off the Week

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 25.07.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied during the trading session on Monday, to kick off the week on the good foot. Having said that, the market is now facing the 200-Day EMA, an indicator that of course will attract a lot of attention. With that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where the market breaking higher could open up a move to 0.68 level, which of course also is an area that had been important in the past. However, you should keep in mind that the market breaking above the 0.68 level opens up the possibility of 0.69, which is where we formed a massive double top.

Obviously, if we were to break above that double top, that could send the market much higher. I don’t necessarily think that’s going to happen easily, but it certainly looks as if we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar can be somewhat noisy anyway, due to the fact that it is highly sensitive to commodity markets. Commodity markets in turn of course are driven by a lot of global growth factors and inflation. In other words, expect this market to be very messy.

Furthermore, we have the Federal Reserve this week, so it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. I think ultimately, we have a situation where the market is trying to figure out where once ago longer-term, but right now we are essentially in the middle of the overall consolidation between the 0.66 and the 0.69 levels. Because of this, I anticipate a lot of noise more than anything else, and therefore you need to be very cautious with your position sizing, as volatility will probably increase, not pullback. Ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation where caution is the better part of valor, and therefore you need to realize that this is a market that needs to be monitored very closely, and therefore you don’t want to put too much money into the market at any one time, as the situation is most certainly in flux.

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