AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Stumbles a Bit on Monday

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

Monday has started out with a little bit of hesitation in the Australian dollar, as it looks like we could possibly be setting up for some type of pullback. After all, the Friday session was a massive shooting star, and that of course will attract a lot of attention, as it is a sign of exhaustion.

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the session on Monday, then I think it will pick up momentum to go looking toward the 200-day EMA and then eventually the 50-day EMA underneath there. At that point, then we have the market going down to the 0.65 level. On the other hand, if we turn around and break above the top of the shooting star for the session on Friday, then that would be a very bullish sign.

In that scenario, we would perhaps see the Aussie dollar go looking to the 0.6750 level where we see a cluster of previous trading. Above there, then we have the possibility of the market going to the 0.69 level, which is a major resistance barrier. In general, you have to keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly influenced by global risk appetite and of course, global trade, as the Australian economy is so highly levered to the commodity markets, which of course are levered to the growth of global economies. It’s also very closely tied to the Asian market, so pay attention to how they are faring.

In general, I think this is a market that probably needs a little bit of a pullback or at the very least some sideways action. So, because of that, I am looking at this pair as one that’s probably likely to drop, although I don’t necessarily think that it’s going to fall apart. Because of this, I am slightly negative at the moment but don’t necessarily feel the need to put a lot of money into this market as things currently stand.

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