AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Bounces After Initial Sell Off

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 20.10.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen rather hard during the trading session on Thursday, reaching the lows that we have seen multiple times now. At this point, it looks like we are ready to bounce back into consolidation, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we will see the market rally, only to fail again. After all, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see the Aussie dollar be very noisy in this geopolitical environment, and of course the unknown attitude of global growth will have its say as well. Ultimately, I believe that this is a market that you continue to “fade rallies” in.

The 0.64 level above is a significant resistance barrier, right along with the 50-Day EMA. Any move toward that area will have me shorting this market, especially as soon as we start to show signs of exhaustion. The market also has to deal with the 50-Day EMA just above there, so if we were to break above there, then it’s possible that we could see a little bit more of a correction, but it’s not necessarily a trend change until we break above the 0.66 level at this point. If we were to do that, then obviously that would be a completely different story.

As things stand right now, there is a huge amount of concern out there, so therefore I think it makes quite a bit of sense that we will continue to see the US dollar be attractive to most traders. If we were to break down below the recent lows, near the 0.6275 level, then it’s possible that we could see the market drop all the way down to the 0.62 handle. This is an area that’s been important in the past, so it will be interesting to see how we behave there. If we break down below there, then it’s likely that we go looking down to the 0.66 handle after that.

All things being equal, I think we continue to see a lot of volatility and choppiness in this market, and therefore I think we’ve got a scenario where you are just plain short-term positions back and forth.

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