AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Bounces Back Into Resistance

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 05.10.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Wednesday, only to run into the bottom of the previous wedge that I have been paying close attention to. The market is going to continue to see the 0.6350 level as an area of importance, so if we can break above there, it could lead to another 50 PIP rally toward the 0.64 level.

All things being equal, signs of exhaustion will continue to get sold into, as the Australian dollar is so weak. That being said, we are near a lot of historical support, so I do expect the Aussie to continue to be very choppy but it’s obvious at this point that the sellers are stronger than the buyers overall. Furthermore, the 50-Day EMA has been rather reliable as resistance recently, and it is plunging even lower so it suggests that we are going to find that as an area that the market cannot get above. If we were to break above the 50-Day EMA, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.66 level, which has been historically important as well.

All of that being said, the US dollar continues to be the safety currency of choice, and therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that eventually we have moved back toward it. At this point, the Australian dollar is probably getting a bit of a relief rally more than anything else, and therefore I would not necessarily expect this to last for a significant amount of time. Ultimately, we could go looking toward the 0.62 level, which is the swing low from several months back, and if we break that, the Aussie could come unraveled.

That being said, we have the jobs number on Friday and that will have a major influence on where we go next, so keep that in mind and keep your position size reasonable as we will probably continue to see massive amounts of volatility on short-term charts, and longer-term charts look decidedly negative at the moment. Ultimately, I’m still “fade the rally” when it comes to the Aussie dollar.

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