AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Bounces to Kick Off the Week

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 31.07.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

Australian dollar traders stepped in and started buying on Monday, as it looks like we are trying to continue the overall consolidation area. The 50-Day EMA is sitting just above, and a lot of people will be paying close attention to it. If we can break above the 50-Day EMA, then the 200-Day EMA gets tested. Anything above there then opens up the possibility of reaching toward the top of the overall consolidation area, which is all the way up to the 0.69 level. Underneath, we have quite a bit of support of the 0.66 level.

It’s probably worth noting that the Aussie dollar has to deal with the RBA interest rate decision early on Tuesday, so there will be a lot of volatility. That being said, the market has been in a range for a while and unless the RBA totally shocks in the market, I suspect that we will continue to see a lot of choppiness, as the markets are still trying to figure out whether or not they are going to be looking toward the Aussie dollar for momentum, or if we are to simply spinning our wheels.

All things being equal, this is a market that is probably going to be very noisy over the next 24 hours, but ultimately this is a situation where we would have to see something rather big to make things change. Quite frankly, this is the wrong time of year for that most of the time, due to the fact that a lot of the bigger traders out there are away at vacation.

That being said, if we were to break down below the 0.66 level, it opens up a move down to the 0.65 level. If we continue to rally from here, I do think that it would take a lot to get this market above the 0.69 level, but breaking that level opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.70 level, despite the fact that I think it probably would take quite a bit to make that happen as well. In general, I think if you are short term range bound trader, this is probably the market for you.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.