AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Breakthrough Wedge
AUD/USD Forecast Video for 04.10.23
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar has fallen rather hard during the trading session on Tuesday, as we are now threatening the 0.63 level. This is a market that has been in a falling wedge for a while, but we have now smashed through the bottom of it to eliminate that. In fact, we also breakthrough other lines that I can draw on the chart for support as well. This suggests that the US dollar is going to continue to be very strong, and that although we did not smashed through the 0.63 level easily, I think we continue to see more or less a “fade on the rally” type of market in the Aussie dollar.
The size of the candlestick tells you that there is a lot of negativity, and therefore I think we’ve got a situation where there is plenty of downward momentum. That being said, if the market were to break above the 0.65 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 0.66 level. The 0.66 level is an area that I think would attract a lot of attention as historically it has been important. With that being the case, I’d be looking to fade near there as well. However, if we were to break above there and the 200-Day EMA, which is essentially the same area, then we could see a complete trend change. I am not holding my breath for that, and I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before any rally gets squashed.
Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to risk appetite, and therefore you need to be very cautious due to the fact that risk appetite is in a state of flux to say the least. Furthermore, Australia is highly sensitive to the commodity markets, so that has to be paid close attention to as well. With this being the case, I just don’t like the Aussie, because I think there are far too many things out there that will continue to see demand for US dollars climb, therefore the Aussie will pale in comparison.
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