AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Chop Back and Forth

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 24.04.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, but gave back gains above the 50-Day EMA. The 50-The EMA is an indicator that a lot of people will be paying attention to, and you can see that it’s offered quite a bit of resistance multiple times over the last several days, so I think at this point in time you continue to see a lot of back-and-forth. That being said, we are in a larger consolidation area, with the 0.68 level above offering a short-term ceiling, while the 0.66 level underneath offers a short-term support level.

At this point, we are still essentially near the middle of the consolidation area, so I don’t necessarily think that the negative candlestick on Friday means much, at least not yet. More likely than not, we will continue to go back and forth in this larger consolidation area, so that leads to more volatility and choppiness.

Eventually, we will break out of the 200 point range, and then we could have a bigger move, perhaps something that’s worth holding onto. Until then, you have to look at this through the prism of the range bound market, and therefore look for short-term swings. The market will continue to be very noisy overall, and I think you need to trade it as such. I would not look at this as a longer-term opportunity anytime soon, and therefore I think you will get a situation where you probably need to trade in small positions and go back and forth until the market makes up its mind.

You could make an argument for a bearish flag, which could measure for a return all the way back down to the swing low near 0.62. I don’t necessarily think that’s the case quite yet, but if we were to start breaking down, it becomes much more of a possibility. On the other hand, if we turn right back around and show signs of life again, then we could break above the 200-Day EMA, which would open up the possibility of a move to the 0.69 level.

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