AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Consolidate

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 02.11.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility. All things being equal, the market is in a down trending channel, and of course we have the Federal Reserve meeting later in the day which will cause a lot of noise. With that being the case, I think you get a situation where it is only a matter of time before the markets jump around again. We have seen a continued attempt to rally, but it looks like the 0.64 level above is a major barrier right along with that down trending channel, and it’s also worth noting that the downtrend line is backed up by the 50-Day EMA as well. In other words, there is a massive amount of technical resistance above, and therefore I think it’s going to be difficult to continue going higher.

On the other hand, the 0.6275 level underneath has offered a significant amount of support, and this is the range we find ourselves in. If we were to break down below there, then it’s likely that we go down to the 0.62 level. Anything below that level then opens up the floodgates of selling down to the 0.60 level. I believe at this point in time, the market continues to be very noisy due to the US dollar itself, and maybe not so much about the Aussie dollar. That being said, it’s worth noting that the Aussie dollar is highly influenced by global growth and global risk appetite, so you have to keep an eye on that as well.

The latest economic numbers in China continued to paint a picture of negativity, and therefore the likelihood of the Aussie dollar falling makes quite a bit of sense. That being said, if we were to turn around and take out the 0.65 level, then we will threaten the 200-Day EMA indicator, and anything above there is a major trend change. Ultimately, I think it would take a lot to make that happen, as there are so many negatives out in the world right now.

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