AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Drift Lower

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 13.11.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen significantly during the last couple of days, and Friday was just more of the same. At this point, it looks like we are more likely than not going to continue to go lower, which makes sense considering that there are so many geopolitical concerns, and of course the fact that the Australian dollar is so highly levered to global trade doesn’t help either. We are looking at a potential recession coming, and that suggests that we have trouble ahead.

Above, we have the 0.64 level offering significant resistance, but it was “fair value” over the longer term, as the recent high at the 0.65 level offers the top of longer-term consolidation, with the 0.63 level underneath offering a significant amount of support. It does look like we’re going to head back down to the 0.63 level, an area that has offered support multiple times. Breaking through that level then opens up a move down to the 0.60 level longer-term.

I don’t necessarily know that we are going to break down, because quite frankly the Australian dollar is at extreme lows. However, one would think that geopolitical concerns and global trade issues will continue to favor the greenback overall, and that probably will have a bit of an effect in this area. If we were to turn out and rally from here, it’s worth noting that the 50-Day EMA sits just above the 0.64 level, and therefore if we break above there, the market could go look into the 0.65 level again. If we were to break above there, then it’s possible that the 200-Day EMA would be targeted next.

The only thing I think you can count on at this point is going to be a lot of choppy volatility, and therefore I think you have a situation where we are not going to be able to hang onto a trade for very long, and of course one day may tell us one, while the other one ends up turning around completely. I think you have to look at this through a short-term perspective, and therefore it’s difficult to hang onto a bigger position.

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