AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Show Volatility

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 17.11.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen initially to kick off the Thursday session but found buyers to jump into the market and push it toward the crucial 0.65 level. The 0.65 level has previously been a bit of a magnet for price as it is not only attractive for traders, but it is also the top of a recent consolidation area, and therefore it does make certain amount of sense that we would see a lot of resistance here. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to be noise more than anything else, and therefore you need to be very cautious with your position size.

If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the Thursday session, that would be a very negative turn of events, perhaps opening up a move down to the 0.64 level. The 0.64 level also features a 50-Day EMA, and therefore I think it would be an area that we need to pay close attention to. Anything below there opens up a flush down to the 0.63 level.

On the other hand, if we break above the shooting star from the trading session on Wednesday, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the 200-Day EMA, possibly the 0.66 level. Remember, the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to global growth and risk appetite, but at the same time we also have to pay attention to the bond markets in the United States, as interest rates will be a huge driver of the greenback in general, so as those rates rise, that will cause this pair to fall, and of course vice versa.

I think at this point in time, you need to be very cautious but it is setting out for a huge fight that we can let the market decide who wins, and simply follow it. On a break of one of these candlesticks, it could set up a nice trade. Whether or not it is the market trying to turn around and rally from a huge move, or if we are going to simply chop around in the short term should be decided rather quickly.

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