AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Drifts Aimlessly

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

You can see that the Aussie dollar did very little during the trading session on Monday. And that’s not a huge surprise considering there’s a severe lack of economic announcements out there to move anything, let alone the Australian dollar.

Keep in mind that the 50 day EMA above is a bit of a resistance barrier right along with the 200 day EMA. Underneath, we have the 0.65 level offering potential support and I think this is what we are looking at here is going to be consolidation. The 0.65 level being broken to the downside then opens up the possibility of a move down to the 0.6450 level.

On the upside, we have the 0.66 level, and that is an area that I think a lot of people will be showing a lot of downward pressure. And if we can break above there, then it’s possible that the Australian dollar goes much higher. Keep in mind that the Aussie dollar is highly sensitive to risk appetite, and of course, the interest rate differential between the United States and Australia. Also, you have to keep in mind that China is a big player when it comes to what happens with the Aussie dollar. And if China continues to look a bit lackluster, that obviously has its influence on the Aussie as well. Either way, I think you’ve got a situation where we don’t have anywhere to be anytime soon.

So, if you are a range-bound trader, you have some very clearly defined levels that you can trade off of. Right now, though, we just aren’t anywhere near any of them. So, this is a somewhat lackluster and neutral currency pair, to say the least. However, if we do break out to the upside, that could be a sign that the US dollar is failing everywhere. Or if we break down to the downside and through the 0.6450 level, that could be a sign that the US dollar is strengthening against everything. So, it is used as an indicator, but right now I’m not really seeing a lot of trading opportunities.

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