Bitcoin Price Forecast: Strategy’s BTC Sale, Oil Rally Rattles Crypto Bulls

Bitcoin (BTC) fell by more than 11.25% this week to reach under $65,360 on Wednesday, its lowest level since March. Whale selling, Strategy-related anxiety, and rising oil prices were the main causes behind the selloff.

Bitcoin Bear Flag Breakdown Puts $50K Back in View

Bitcoin is breaking below its prevailing bear flag on the weekly chart, raising the risk of a deeper move toward the pattern’s measured target near $50,000.

The immediate line to watch is the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, blue), now near $61,800.

This moving average has repeatedly acted as Bitcoin’s long-term floor, including during the February selloff, when BTC defended the level and rebounded by roughly 40% afterward.

Historically, the 200-week SMA also marked or closely tracked major cycle-bottom zones in 2015, 2018 and 2020.

That makes the current retest important. A clean weekly close below it would weaken the “cycle floor” argument and open the door to the bear-flag target near $50,000.

BTC’s momentum backdrop is also weak. The weekly relative strength index (RSI) is near the high-30s, while price remains below the 20-week (green) and 50-week (red) SMAs, keeping sellers in control unless BTC quickly reclaims the $72,000–$75,000 area.

Whale Selling Adds Pressure as Small Traders Buy the Dip

On-chain data supports the bearish setup.

Santiment says Bitcoin whales and sharks holding 10 to 10,000 BTC dumped 24,602 BTC over the past week, while micro wallets holding under 0.01 BTC added only 61 BTC.

That divergence is not bullish yet. Larger holders are distributing into weakness, while smaller traders are attempting to catch the dip.

In a Wednesday post, Santiment said a stronger dip-buying signal would come when these two cohorts reverse course, meaning whales and sharks resume accumulation while micro traders stop chasing the decline.

Strategy Sale Shock Meets Oil-Price Risk

The Bitcoin selloff also comes after Strategy sold 32 BTC for roughly $2.5 million, with proceeds expected to help fund STRC preferred-stock distributions.

The move rattled bulls because Michael Saylor had long been associated with a “never sell Bitcoin” posture.

Still, the sale may be less about lost conviction and more about signaling.

By showing it can monetize a small portion of its BTC if needed, Strategy may be trying to reassure credit markets, rating agencies and index committees that its balance sheet is not completely inflexible.

We are going to be rage baited all day by people who did not listen to the $MSTR earnings call.

I will say it once.

Saylor said they will inoculate the market. This is a deliberate signal to prove to the S&P 500 committee and credit agencies that Strategy would sell Bitcoin if…

— Zynx (@ZynxBTC) June 1, 2026

Macro pressure is adding another layer. Oil prices rose as Middle East hostilities escalated, with Brent rising circa 3% to around $97.87 after renewed Iran-linked attacks and stalled US-Iran talks.

Higher oil keeps inflation risk alive, which is typically negative for long-duration risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s bearish technical target near $50,000 becomes active if the 200-week SMA fails. Until whales stop distributing and BTC reclaims the flag structure, rebounds risk looking like relief rallies rather than trend reversals.