AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Falls to Reach The 200-day EMA

Christopher Lewis
Published: Jan 16, 2024, 14:15 UTC

The Aussie dollar fell rather hard during the trading session on Tuesday to reach the 200 day EMA indicator, an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to.

Australian dollars, FX Empire

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AUD/USD Forecast Video for 17-01-2024

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar fell rather significantly during the course of the trading session on Tuesday as we have broken through the 50-day EMA. And now it looks like we are reaching down to the 200-day EMA. The 200-day EMA sits right around the 0.66 level, so I think that’s an area that we also have to pay attention to because of the large round figure. With this being said, you’ve got a scenario where the market certainly is plunging, but I think there’s a lot of support underneath, especially near the 0.65 level. That being said, I do believe that there is a lot of noise out there and it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of questions asked about the overall health of the markets, and the Aussie dollar might be a good place to look for signs of strength or weakness when it comes to overall market sentiment.

Keep in mind that the 0.65 level has been important multiple times in the past and is the bottom of a large area. It previously was significant resistance as well, so I think that also comes into the picture. The 0.67 level above is essentially fair value in this market like I suggested, and therefore I think we’ve got to look at that as an area where we have to look at this as where the market may calm down. Now if we can break above there, then it could go to the 0.69 level, but right now we need to get a lot of risk on demand in order to make that happen.

The risk profile is quite often mirrored by the Australian dollar as it is a highly correlated currency to the commodity markets and of course the entire Asian, Pacific Asian region. So, with that being said, I think the market continues to be very noisy. I am paying close attention to the 0.65 level because if it holds, then I’m willing to buy for a short-term trade. But otherwise, if we break down below 0.65, then we could go down to the 0.63 level.

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About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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