AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Has Rallied Again

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 21.11.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Monday, reaching toward the 200-Day EMA, an indicator that a lot of people will pay attention to for a longer-term trend. Above there, we have the 0.66 level, so between the 200-Day EMA and that large, round, psychologically significant figure, it’s very likely that we have seen a lot of resistance. That being said, the market is likely to continue to be noisy in this area, and underneath we have the 0.65 level offering potential short-term support.

In general, this is a market that is trying to figure out whether or not I can break out, and of course a lot of people are paying close attention to the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to slow down its monetary policy, or even reverse. This has worked against the value of the US dollar, and I think that will continue to be one of the major stories going into the end of the year. Whether or not that actually takes off and we start changing the overall trend remains to be seen, but clearly the Aussie dollar has made a significant move to try to change that trend.

Underneath, the 0.6450 level opens up the possibility of massive support, and breaking down below there could send this pair lower. That would more likely than not also feature the US dollar falling against almost everything, because it would decidedly be a “pro-US dollar move.” Interest rates in America will be a major driver of where we’re going, and therefore I think you have to look at this through the prism of what the world thinks that the Fed will do, and right now it seems like people are betting on the Federal Reserve being very quiet or perhaps even blinking. It’s hard to tell, because quite frankly the Federal Reserve has a long history of making the wrong decision at the wrong time. However, momentum is also something worth paying attention to, and it certainly looks like it is shifting to the upside for a bigger move. That being said, be cautious about your position sizing.

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