AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Pulls Back

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 13.09.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the course of the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to see noisy behavior. That being said, the market is likely to see a lot of trouble, as the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to global growth and of course commodity markets. What’s interesting is that we have the CPI figures coming on Wednesday, and that should cause quite a bit of volatility. I think at this point, the market is very concerned that the CPI numbers in the United States will come out stronger than anticipated. If that’s the case, then it will put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to stay “tighter for longer”, something that I believe they have repeatedly stated.

At the same time, Australia being highly levered to Asia will have a lot to do with where we go next, and therefore I think you have to look at through the prism of whether or not there is going to be global growth. If global growth starts to struggle, then the Australian dollar will almost certainly get hammered as a result. If we break down below the 0.6350 level, that’s like the bottom of the market falling out, and we could go much lower. However, the CPI number will have a major influence on where we go with the US dollar next, and therefore we have to wait to see what happens on Wednesday to put any serious money to work.

Breaking above the 0.65 level on a daily close would be the first obstacle cleared that people would pay close attention to. In general, that could open up a move to the 0.66 level, but if we were to break above there, then it would be a major shift in attitude. That being said, I think we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior over the next couple of days, but this market still favors the downside overall. Whether or not we need some type of recovery rally remains to be seen, but it should continue to offer an ability to pick up “cheap US dollars” along the way.

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