AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Rates Through Support

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 03.08.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar tried to rally to kick off the trading session on Wednesday, but then fell below the 0.66 level as we continue to see US dollar strength in general. Interestingly enough, we had a debt downgrade in the United States overnight by Fitch, but we’ve seen the US dollar really start to take off. This tells you that perhaps things are getting worse globally, and of course the fact that the RBA chose not to raise rates the other day has added a little bit more negativity in the Aussie.

With that being said, it looks like we are going to head down to the 0.65 level, a large, round, psychologically important figure, and an area that I think continues to be paid close attention to. Keep in mind that we have the Non-Farm Payroll announcement on Friday, so that’ll throw more volatility in this market on Friday. However, it looks like the market has already decided what it wants to do, so I do think that the US dollar continues to get a lot of inflows. With that being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore if we can turn around a break above the 0.66 level, then we could have to reset.

On that type of reset, I’d be looking to short the Australian dollar closer to the 50-Day EMA, which is near the 0.67 level. Above there, we have the 200-Day EMA, and therefore think you have to look at it through the prism of whether or not we can continue to see some type of turnaround. Ultimately, this is a situation where I just don’t see how this changes, therefore I think you’ve got a scenario where you have to look at this through the prism of selling signs of exhaustion, but the jobs number could be a bit of a wildcard. Expect a lot of volatility over the next couple of days but I still favor the overall downside as things continue to be very noisy and there are a lot of concerns around the world.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.