AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Shows More of the Same

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 11.10.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar has shown itself to be somewhat fickle during the early hours on Tuesday, as we initially tried to rally a bit, but then turned around to show signs of weakness. The 50-Day EMA above is a major resistance barrier, sitting right around the downtrend line that I have marked on the chart. At this point, the question then becomes whether or not the market can finally break above the 50-Day EMA, and as things look on Tuesday heading into America, it does not suggest a lot of bullish pressure.

Keep in mind that the bond market in America was closed on Monday and some of the bullish behavior that you’d seen in other currencies beyond the US dollar was probably due to that. Whether or not it can stick remains to be seen, but quite frankly it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where over the longer term the bullish and risk-taking behavior pays off. Quite frankly, there are far too many things out there causing issues, and the macroeconomic environment is getting steadily worse. Add to that, we now have multiple wars going on, and it’s only a matter of time before somebody does something rather stupid to increase that number as well.

That being said, the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to commodities, so that does help it a bit. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, ultimately reaching toward the lows again if the correlation between the higher rates and the strengthening US dollar continues. On the other hand, if bond markets crater for some reason, that will send the Aussie higher against the US dollar, or perhaps another way to look at it would be the US dollar falling against the Aussie might be a better way to put it. The Australian dollar has no real strength, but the US dollar seems to be in a state of flux as of late. In general, I think you continue to see noisy behavior in this market, so you can’t hang on to a position for a very long amount of time.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.