AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Slams Into the 200-Day EMA
AUD/USD Forecast Video for 22.11.23
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, showing signs of strength yet again as we slammed into the 200-Day EMA. We even broke above there a little bit, but it looks like the 0.66 level is going to offer a significant amount of resistance. That being said, I think we could get a little bit of an exhaustion move to the downside here, but I’m also keeping an eye on the 0.66 level as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we previously have seen support, so you would have to assume that the “market memory” that comes into the picture here probably is a major factor.
The Australian dollar of course is highly sensitive to global growth, and of course the commodity markets on the whole. Furthermore, it is also highly sensitive to what goes on in Asia, as China is one of the biggest customers for Australian commodities. Ultimately, the other factor that people are paying close attention to is whether or not the Federal Reserve is likely to continue tightening its monetary policy, or if they are at the end of the cycle. It’s interesting to see that traders are starting to price in the idea of not only the Federal Reserve slowing down its monetary policy, but perhaps turning it around completely and trying to loosen. I do not think that’s the case, but it’s possible down the road.
Either way, I think we are in an area where we could see a lot of noisy behavior and therefore I think you probably need to be cautious at this point. Obviously, the buyers have the momentum advantage of the moment, but we also have a major holiday on Thursday in the United States, so that will certainly affect the overall liquidity for the week. A short-term pullback to the 0.65 level is possible at this point, and I would anticipate that the 0.65 level should be a certain amount of support just waiting to happen as it was previous resistance. Either way, I think we are heading into a volatile region.
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