AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Spikes After CPI

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 13.07.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session to break above the 50-Day EMA. The 0.67 level has offered a bit of resistance previously, and the fact that we have sliced through there suggests that the Aussie is going to go looking to the top of the overall range, perhaps the 0.68 level. The 0.68 level has been important multiple times, therefore it’s likely that he could see a bit of selling pressure. However, if we were to break above there, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 0.69 level.

A pullback from the area here would make a certain amount of sense, but after the size of the candlestick, it seems very unlikely that will happen easily. Because of this, I think that the aussie is more likely than not ready to attempt a major breakout, and with that being the case the market will continue to see the US dollar get beaten.

The markets continue to be very noisy in general, and I do think that if you are looking to buy the Australian dollar you will have to find some type of value on a pullback. I think you probably get that opportunity after this stretched move. All things being equal, I think you got a situation where you will continue to see a lot of volatility, as the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the global risk appetite and of course the commodity markets in general.

Ultimately, we are still in the previous range, and that hasn’t changed. However, we also have to look at the fact that this type of impulsive candlestick doesn’t come along every day, and typically a move like this does have a bit of follow-through. That’s basically what I am analyzing the market on, the fact that the participants have all ran in one direction so rapidly. Because of this, I think the burden of proof is now on the US dollar, because although the Aussie really took off, there were other currencies out there as well that really beat down the US dollar during the day, so this is a market wide reaction.

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