AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Stabilizes Into the Weekend

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 14.08.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth in a rather tight range during the trading session on Friday, showing signs of support near the 0.65 level. The 0.65 level of course is a very large, round, psychologically significant figure, and therefore I think you have to look at this through the prism of a potential turnaround, although it would be for short-term at best from what I can tell.

The 0.66 level above is a potential resistance barrier as it was previous support. A certain amount of “market memory” could come back into the picture, but even if we were to break above there, the market is likely to test the 50-Day EMA near the 0.67 level. All things being equal, any rally at that point in time opens up the possibility of showing signs of exhaustion that people will jump on.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Friday, then breaking through the 0.65 level could send the Aussie down to the 0.64 level, an area that has been important multiple times. With all that being said, I think we’ve got a situation where the market will be very noisy, and therefore you need to be cautious with your position size as the Australian dollar is so highly sensitive to risk appetite, and of course global growth. With this being the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we see confusion, and therefore messy trading.

All things being equal, this is a situation where you continue to see a lot of trading that comes into the picture in both directions as people are trying to sort out what’s going to happen next. With the Federal Reserve remaining tight, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see the US dollar somewhat strong, but at the same time, there are quite a few traders out there that now believe the Federal Reserve won’t be able to tighten much further. At this point, you then have to think about the global growth situation, but at this point it seems like a mess.

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