The Australian dollar has initially tried to rally during the course of the Wednesday session but gave back the gains rather quickly, as market participants continue to look for clarity. It’s worth noting that the market had broken above the 0.66 level rather handily, and therefore traders will continue to look at this through the prism of a potential “buy on the dips” scenario. Whether or not we hold remains to be seen, but clearly we have a lot of things to take into account at the moment.
Underneath, we have the 200-Day EMA which sits near the 0.6560 level and is more likely than not going to cause a certain amount of support. A short-term pullback at this point in time will more likely than not find plenty of buyers that come into the picture to take advantage of the recent breakout, but if we close below the 200-Day EMA, then it is very likely that we will go lower. I think at this point, we need to pay close attention to the interest rate markets in the United States, as it will be a major influence on where we go next. If those rates start to climb again, that could be positive for the greenback. On the other hand, if rates start to fall, that will propel other currencies against the greenback.
As I look at this chart, I believe it is a market that simply needs to pull back a bit in order to find value, and that might be most of what we are seeing here. If we were to turn around and break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, it opens up a continuation of a move to the 0.69 level above, which was a major resistance barrier. It makes a nice target, but at this point we are a long way from having that happen. The market is a little overstretched at the moment, so it is only a matter of time before buying value is the best way forward. Position sizing is probably something worth paying close attention to.
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.