The Australian dollar rallied a bit during the early hours on Friday as we continue to bounce around the 0.65 level. The 0.65 level is an area that previously has been resistant and has shown itself to be somewhat supported. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to pay close attention to this general vicinity.
Ultimately, when we look at the Australian dollar, we have to think of it as a situation that will rely heavily on global trade because the Australian economy is a commodity driven economy. And therefore, it does make a certain amount of sense that if Asia is growing, as an example, then Australia should have a good economy. That being said, there are some other things that we need to pay attention to, such as the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy, which in theory should be looser in 2024, but it does look like they pushed that back. We also have the 50 day EMA dropping below the 200 day EMA causing the so-called death cross, which is a negative sign, although it’s normally pretty late.
That being said, I think we are just simply bouncing around the 0.65 level, trying to sort out where we go next. A lot of this will be driven by interest rates in the United States, but it will also be driven by risk appetite in general. If we do break above the 0.66 level, then it opens up a much bigger move to the upside, perhaps to 0.9, before it is all said and done. On the other hand, if we break down below the 0.6450 level, the Australian dollar could find itself dropping down to the 0.63 level. In the short term, you are looking at a range bound sideways market that short term scalpers might be attracted to. Short-term charts will make quite a bit of sense to pay attention to if you do want to be involved, using some type of oscillator like the Stochastic Oscillator for directionality.
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.