AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Testing Support

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 11-01-2024

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

As you can see, the Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session, and therefore, you can see that the market is just testing this previous resistance area. The 0.67 level is a bit of a magnet for price, if you will, as it’s in the middle of the overall range between 0.65 and 0.69. So therefore, I am very neutral on this pair. I suppose you can make an argument that the 50% Fibonacci retracement level has held since we broke higher, but really at this point, I think you’re probably more likely to be paying attention to the 50-day EMA, which sits underneath that support, as it is an indicator that a lot of people pay attention to.

We also got the so-called Golden Cross recently as the 50-day EMA broke above the 200-day EMA, which is a longer-term bullish signal, but it’s also typically very late. And in fact, the pair has pretty much done nothing but fall since that kicked off. With that being said, pay close attention to the bond markets and what yields are doing in America.

As we get the consumer price index numbers on Thursday and the producer price index on Friday, I think it’s very likely that we will see the US dollar jumping around. That is what this pair is essentially waiting on at the moment. And between now and then, we’re more likely than not just going to be in a bit of a holding pattern. You should also keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly levered to risk appetite as well as Asia. So, both of those things need to be followed as well.

The Australian dollar does tend to be very noisy, but it is a great way to play risk appetite in general. This is because Australia is almost solely focused on commodities, so therefore it’s only in a “risk on” type of environment that you see commodities start to take off. On the other hand, if we see a lot of risk aversion, it does make sense that the US dollar strengthens, and people will continue to run toward it.

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