AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – 50% Level at .7324 Potential Trigger Point for Upside Breakout

The Australian Dollar is trading lower on Friday as traders await the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report due at 12:30 GMT. The data will be watched closely by the Federal Reserve, as it mulls when to pull back its emergency pandemic stimulus measures, though the central bank has said it will look to wind down its bond-buying program soon.

At 05:17 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7300, down 0.0012 or -0.16%.

On the Thursday, the AUD/USD hit its highest level since September 16 as the mood in global markets thawed a little and high energy prices put an extra gloss on resource-linked currencies.

Friday’s U.S. jobs data is expected to show the economy added 490K jobs September. The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 5.1% and average hourly earnings are estimated to have risen by 0.4%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned up on Thursday when buyers took out .7304 and was reaffirmed when .7316 was penetrated.

A trade through .7324 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through .7226 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is .7478 to .7170. Its 50% level at .7324 is resistance and a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

The next major upside target is the longer-term retracement zone at .7379 to .7499.

The minor range is .7226 to .7324. Its 50% level at .7275 is potential support.

The short-term range is .7170 to .7324. Its retracement zone at .7247 to .7229 is the last potential support area before the main bottom at .7226.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7324.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7324 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a move into the pivot at .7275.

Since the main trend is up, look for buyers on the first test of .7275. If this level fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the support zone at .7247 to .7229, followed by the main bottom at .7226.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7324 will signal the presence of buyers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with .7379 the next likely upside target.