James Hyerczyk
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Australian Dollar and Coins

The Australian Dollar is trading higher on Wednesday on slight optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal and a report that said the U.S. may delay its December 15 tariffs on Chinese imports. We could also be seeing some light position-squaring ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate and monetary policy decisions later in the day.

At 08:16 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6823, up 0.0011 or +0.16%.

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Aussie traders seem to be leaning toward the positive side of a trade deal. The price action also suggests investors believe a report from The Wall Street Journal that said the U.S. plans to delay slapping China with additional tariffs on December 15.

Look for the Fed to hold rates steady when it makes its announcements at 19:00 GMT. A hawkish tone could drive the Aussie lower.

The selling pressure on the AUD/USD this week is likely being fueled by traders pricing in another rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia early next year.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6754 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through .6862.

The main range is .6671 to .6930. Its retracement zone at .6800 to .6770 is a key support area. On Tuesday, the top price or 50% level stopped the selling at .6800.

The major resistance is the longer-term retracement zone at .6877 to .6925.


Daily Technical Forecast

Today’s inside move suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

Bullish Scenario

The nearest upside target is a downtrending Gann angle at .6832. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this angle. Taking it out, however, could trigger a breakout to the upside into the next downtrending Gann angle at .6847.

Bearish Scenario

If sellers return then look for a retest of the major 50% level at .6800. This is followed closely by the long-term uptrending Gann angle at .6796.

If .6796 fails as support then look for the selling to get stronger with .6770 the next likely downside target.

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