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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is edging higher shortly after the release of China’s Trade Balance report. According to the report, China posted a March trade surplus of $32.64 billion. This was higher than the forecast for a $6 billion to $7.05 billion surplus.

The report showed dollar-denominated exports rose 14.2 percent for March from a year ago, topping expectations of a 7.3 percent rise from a year ago, according to Reuters. However, dollar-denominated imports were down 7.6 percent in March from a year ago, falling short of expectations of a 1.3 percent decline from a year ago.

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At 07:19 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7128, up 0.0005 or +0.07%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7175 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The next main top is .7207. A trade through .7052 will change the minor trend to down. This is followed by main bottoms at .7041 and .7003.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through .7109 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is .7394 to .6764. The AUD/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at .7079 to .7153. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is .6764 to .7296. Its retracement zone at .7030 to .6967 is the next support area. It provided support on March 8 when it stopped the selling at .7003.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .7128, the direction of the AUD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .7119.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7119 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the Fibonacci level at .7153, followed by the downtrending Gann angle at .7164.

The angle is resistance. It stopped the rally on Wednesday and Thursday. Overtaking it could trigger an acceleration to the upside with .7207 the next target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7119 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the 50% level at .7079. If this level fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into a main bottom at .7052.

Taking out .7052 will change the main trend to down. This could extend the selling pressure into .7041 then .7030.

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