AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – April 25, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading nearly flat on Thursday after yesterday’s steep sell-off. The financial markets are closed in Australia so the major banks and institutions are on the sidelines, leading to the tight trading range and sideways trade. Due to the thin trading conditions, the Aussie could be ripe for a short-covering rally. The longer-term bias is to the downside, however, as investors have priced in a rate cut for later this year.

At 05:16 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7017, up 0003 or +0.05%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the next swing bottom at .7003 will reaffirm the downtrend. The trend will change to up on a trade through .7206. This is highly unlikely to occur, however, due to the steep six-day sell-off, the AUD/USD may be in a position to form a closing price reversal bottom. This could trigger a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

The main range is .7394 to .6764. Its retracement zone at .7079 to .7153 is resistance. It is also controlling the longer-term direction of the AUD/USD.

The short-term range is .6764 to .7296. Its retracement zone at .7030 to .6967 is support. The AUD/USD is currently trading inside this zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .7017, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .7030.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over .7030 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to create enough upside momentum then watch for a potential surge into the resistance cluster at .7079 to .7086.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7030 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out yesterday’s low at .7004 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. The selling pressure is also likely to take out the main bottom at .7003. This should drive the AUD/USD into the next support cluster at .6967 to .6964.

Look for another acceleration to the downside if sellers take out .6964 with conviction.