AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – April 26, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly higher on Friday. Short-covering and position-squaring ahead of today’s U.S. Gross Domestic Product report, due to be released at 12:30 GMT, is likely fueling the price action. Earlier today, Australian Import Prices came in below expectations at -0.5% and quarterly Producer Inflation matched expectations, however, this is likely having little impact on the price action. Furthermore, traders still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates in May.

At 06:19 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7024, up 0.0007 or +0.08%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. On Thursday, the downtrend was reaffirmed when sellers took out the previous main bottom at .7003. A trade through .6988 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The trend will turn up on a trade through .7206. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% correction over the near-term.

The short-term range is .6764 to .7296. The AUD/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at .7030 to .6967. This zone is support, having stopped the market previously at .7003 on March 8.

The main range is .7394 to .6764. Its retracement zone at .7079 to .7153 is major resistance. It is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .7030.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7030 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the downtrending Gann angle at .7066. Look for sellers on the first test of this angle.

Overtaking .7066 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a rally into a series of retracement levels at .7079, .7097 and .7123.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7030 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a retest of yesterday’s low at .6988. Taking it out will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could drive the AUD/USD into a major support cluster at .6967.

The combination of a Fibonacci level and an uptrending Gann angle at .6967 creates a major support cluster. Buyers could come in on the first test of this level. However, if it fails then look for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at .6865.