AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – April 5, 2018 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading weaker shortly before the U.S. opening after an early session rally failed to attract enough buyers to extend the move. The early rally was fueled by increased demand for risky assets and a better-than-expected trade balance.

However, the Aussie is currently being pressured by a rebound in the U.S. Dollar and weakness across most commodities. Weakness in the Chinese Yuan is also weighing on the Australian Dollar.

At 1025 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7684, down 0.0031 or -0.40%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the upside on Wednesday when buyers took out the minor top at .7706, changing the minor trend to up.

A trade through .7784 will change the main trend to up. A move through .7642 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is .7784 to .7642. Its retracement zone at .7713 to .7730 stopped the rally earlier today. This is followed by a major Fibonacci level at .7743. The next major resistance is a major 50% level at .7818.

The short-term range is .7642 to .7726. Its 50% level or pivot is .7684. This price is currently being tested. It is likely to control the direction of the Aussie the rest of the session.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the day is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .7684.

Holding .7684 will indicate that buyers are coming in to stop the price slide. If successful, they could drive the AUD/USD back into a series of levels like .7713, .7726, .7730 and .7743. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with targets at .7784 and .7818.

A sustained move under .7684 will signal that the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with .7642 the next major target.

The trigger point for an even steeper break is .7642. In this case, .7501 is the next major target.