AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – August 21, 2018 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading higher on Tuesday. The Aussie is being helped by increased demand for risky assets as concerns over emerging markets ease and amid a wave of optimism over the trade talks between the United States and China.

At 1153 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7355, up 0.0016 or +0.22%.

Earlier in the session, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes from its last meeting. The minutes reiterated the central bank’s monetary policy statement from two weeks ago, saying that the RBA believes the economy will strengthen, but interest rates will remain at historically low levels until at least the end of 2019 due to concerns over weak wages.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the reversal on August 15 at .7202. The currency is in no position to change trend. It’s just basically retracing the last swing down.

The short-term range is .7453 to .7202. Its retracement zone at .7327 to .7357 is currently being tested. Since the main trend is down, sellers could start to show up on a test of this zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at .7355 and the earlier price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the day is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at .7357

A sustained move over .7357 will indicate the presence of buyers. The initial move over this level could be labored with an uptrending Gann angle coming in at .7362 and a downtrending Gann angle coming in at .7373.

Look for a potential surge to the upside if buyers can take out .7373 with conviction. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with the next target angle coming in at .7413.

A sustained move under .7357 will signal the return of sellers. If this move attracts enough sellers, we could see a break back into the 50% level at .7327. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 1.1381.