AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – August 29, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar continues to drift lower on Thursday as investors react to falling global bond yields, the lack of progress on U.S.-China trade talks and weaker-than-expected economic news.

Key U.S. Treasury yields remain inverted, which some investors feel is a sound indicator of a future U.S. recession. The benchmark 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield also fell to a new all-time low under 2.00%.

After last Friday’s flurry of activity, the markets haven’t heard much from the United States and China, which could be good news if the two sides are talking behind the scenes, or bad news if they are ignoring each other.

In Australia, private capital expenditure fell again over the second quarter against expectations of a slight improvement. However, some investors saw positive signs in the report.

At 07:48 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6737, up 0.0003 or +0.05%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will change to up on a trade through .7082. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal retracement if we can get a shift in momentum to the upside.

A trade through .6690 will signal a resumption of the downtrend, while a move through .6677 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .6821 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is .6677 to .6821. Its 50% level or pivot at .6749 has been controlling the direction of the AUD/USD for 17 trading sessions. The Forex pair is currently below this level, giving it a downside bias.

The main range is .7082 to .6677. If the minor trend changes to up then its retracement zone at .6880 to .6827 will become the primary upside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6749, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .6749.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6749 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move can generate enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into this week’s low at .6690, followed by this month’s low at .6677.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6749 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then look for a drive into a downtrending Gann angle at .6792. This angle has been guiding the AUD/USD lower since July 19 so crossing to its strong side could be an indication of a change in investor sentiment.