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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly better on Friday, but the range has been limited by low volume and the lack of fresh news. The Aussie is also slightly lower for the week. Supporting the currency is the stronger-than-expected July Employment Change report. Keeping a lid on prices are expectations for additional rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and trending growth in the United States in the wake of yesterday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales report.

At 19:04 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6783, up 0.0006 or +0.09%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, downside momentum has slowed since the closing price reversal bottom at .6677 on August 7. A trade through .6677 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. It changed trend twice this week before turning lower. A trade through .6821 will change the minor trend to up. This will also confirm the shift in momentum to the upside.

The minor range is .6677 to .6821. Its 50% level or pivot at .6749 is controlling the minor direction of the AUD/USD. Holding above this level is helping to generate a slight upside bias.

The short-term range is .7082 to .6677. If the minor trend changes to up then its retracement zone at .6880 to .6927 will become the primary upside target.


Daily Technical Forecast

The direction into the close on Friday will be determined by the late session momentum, if there is any on this slow trading session.

If buyers take control then look for a rally into the uptrending Gann angle at .6817. Overcoming this angle will put the AUD/USD in a position to change the minor trend to up early next week.

If sellers take control then look for a move into the support cluster at .6749 to .6747. This is formed by a combination of the minor pivot and an uptrending angle.

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