AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Firms after Australian Employment Rebounds in August

The Australian Dollar is edging higher on Thursday after a report showed a big improvement in the country’s labor market. The price action suggests traders believe the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep on raising interest rates, with the only question being whether it does another half-point in October or steps down to quarter-point moves.

At 01:45 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6761, up 0.0013 or +0.19%. On Wednesday, the Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (FXA) settled at $66.63, down $0.04 or -0.06%.

Data Shows Australia Fully Employed

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment rose 33,500 in August, in line with market forecasts and mostly reversing a 41,000 fall in July.

The jobless rate inched up to 3.5%, from 3.4%, but only because more people went looking for work. It remained comfortably below most estimates of full employment.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6699 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through .6916 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is .6699 to .6916. It 50% level at .6808 is the nearest resistance. The short-term resistance comes in at .6854 to .6810.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to .6737 is likely to determine the direction of the AUD/USD early Thursday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6838 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at .6770 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the first pivot at .6807.

Since the main trend is down, look for sellers on the first test of .6807. Overtaking this level, however, could trigger an acceleration into the short-term 50% level at .6854.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6837 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor bottom at .6705, followed by the main bottom at .6699.

Taking out .6699 is likely to lead to a test of the July 14 main bottom at .6682. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.