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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar climbed to a more than three month high on Monday as a combination of vaccine optimism and bets on more monetary easing in the United States drove investors out of the safe-haven U.S. Dollar. Demand for riskier currencies like the Aussie is expected to continue throughout December with investors looking forward to further easing by the Fed, given the near-term virus risks to the U.S. economic recovery.

At 02:09 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7397, up 0.0011 or +0.14%.

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Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the main top at .7414 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through .7255.

The main range is .7414 to .6991. Its retracement zone at .7252 to .7202 is support.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the September 1 main top at .7414.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7414 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential near-term surge into the August 9, 2018 main top at .7453.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome .7414 or a sustained move under this level will indicate the presence of sellers or that the buying is easing. This won’t change the trend to down, but it could trigger the start of a near-term correction.

A close under .7386 will produce a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 correction or a 50% to 61.8% correction of the rally from .7255 or both.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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