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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is trading lower late in the session on Friday after giving up earlier gains. At its current price, the Aussie is in a position to end its 8-week winning streak.

The market jumped early in the session in response to lower U.S. Treasury yields. The currency was also boosted by sharply higher iron ore prices. However, the currency started to give back gains after the U.S. reported stronger than expected manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data as well as better-than-expected U.S. new home sales.

At 17:53 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7148, down 0.0046 or -0.64%.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Earlier in the week, the AUD/USD reached its highest level since early 2019. A trade through .7276 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down when sellers take out the last swing bottom at .7109.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through .7136 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is .7276 to .7136. Its 50% level at .7206 is resistance. This level stopped the rally earlier today.

The short-term range is .7064 to .7276. Its retracement zone at .7170 to .7145 is acting like support.


Late Session Outlook

The early price action suggests that the Fibonacci level at .7145 is the level to watch into the close on Friday.

A sustained move under .7145 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could lead to a breakdown under the minor bottoms at .7136 and .7136 with the main bottom at .7109 the next major target.

Holding above .7145 will signal the presence of buyers. They are going to try to defend the uptrend. If they’re able to create enough momentum then we could see a move back to .7170 or .7206.

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