AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Gets Stronger Over .8165, Weaker Under .8045

The AUD/USD is trading nearly flat on Wednesday. Early in the session, the Forex pair traded lower in response to weaker-than-expected quarterly consumer inflation data. However, since that early report, the Aussie has clawed its way back to unchanged for the session.

Australia’s December quarterly consumer price inflation (CPI) report came in slightly below expectations, lowering any near-term possibility of an interest rate increase from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), headline CPI rose by 0.6% during the quarter, missing expectations for an increase of 0.7%. It saw the annual rate lift to 1.9%, above the 1.8% level of the September quarter but below forecasts for an acceleration to 2.0%.

Traders showed little reaction to President Trump’s first State of the Union Address on Tuesday night. This was probably because he didn’t talk about the U.S. Dollar, protectionism or tariffs.

Traders are primarily focused on the Fed’s monetary policy statement, due to be released today at 1900 GMT. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but traders will be more interested in what the central banks says about inflation and the number of expected rate hikes in 2018.

Daily Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .8135 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This could trigger a move into the May 14, 2015 main top at .8162 and the long-term 50% level at .8165.

A trade through .7956 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is .7956 to .8135. Its 50% level or pivot is .8045. This price is controlling the short-term direction of the Forex pair.

The intermediate range is .7807 to .8135. Its retracement zone is .7971 to .7932.

The main range is .7501 to .8135. Its retracement zone comes in at .7818 to .7743.

Daily Swing Chart Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session will be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at .8045.

A sustained move over .8045 will signal the presence of buyers. This could generate the upside momentum to challenge .8135 then .8162 and .8165.

A sustained move under .8045 will indicate the presence of sellers. This move could trigger an acceleration into .7971, .7956 and .7932.