AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – July 11, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading higher on Thursday after posting a dramatic closing price reversal bottom the previous session and confirming the potentially bullish chart pattern earlier today. The catalyst behind the rapid turnaround in the Aussie were dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which drove Treasury yields sharply lower, while making the U.S. Dollar a less-desirable asset.

On Wednesday, Powell strongly suggested that central bank policymakers were prepared to make a rate cut soon because of a “broad” global weakness that was clouding the U.S. economic outlook amid the on-going trade dispute between the United States and China.

At 09:56 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6983, up 0.0023 or +0.32%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum had been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on July 4 at .7048. On Wednesday, momentum shifted back to the upside with the formation of a closing price reversal bottom.

A trade through .7048 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .6911 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal the return of sellers.

The intermediate range is .6832 to .7048. Its retracement zone at .6940 to .6914 is support. This zone stopped the selling at .6911 on Wednesday.

The short-term range is .7048 to .6911. Its retracement zone at .6980 to .6996 is the first upside target. This zone is currently being tested.

The main retracement zone and major resistance is .7019 to .7063. This zone stopped the selling at .7048 on July 4.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the earlier price action and the current price at .6983, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .6980.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6980 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a surge into a resistance cluster at .6996 to .6998. Look for sellers to show up on the first test of this area.

Taking out .6998 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target .7019 to .7023.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6980 will signal the presence of sellers, or that the buying has dried up. This could trigger a short-term retracement into about .6948 to .6940.