AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – July 22, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly lower on Monday but traders have clawed back more than half of its earlier losses. The currency continues to be underpinned by expectations of a 25-basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week. A chances of a more aggressive 50-basis point rate cut are now below 20%, helping to put a cap on gains.

At 09:05 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7040, down 0.0002 or -0.02%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the downside with the formation of the closing price reversal top at .7082 on July 19 and today’s earlier confirmation of the chart pattern.

A trade through .7082 will negate the closing price reversal top, and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through .6996.

The main range is .7206 to .6832. Its retracement zone at .7019 to .7063 is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair. The AUD/USD is currently trading inside this zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .7040, the direction of the AUD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at .7036.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7036 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a drive into the Fibonacci level at .7063 and the uptrending Gann angle at .7071.

Crossing to the strong side of the angle at .7071 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with .7082 the next likely upside target. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7036 will signal the presence of sellers. The next target is the 50% level at .7015. Crossing to the weak side of this level will indicate the selling is getting stronger with the next targets the main bottom at .6996 and the uptrending Gann angle at .6991.

Overview

Basically, look for the upside bias to continue on a sustained move over .7063, and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under .7019.