AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 13, 2019 Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6912.
James Hyerczyk
AUD/USD

The Australian Dollar is trading sharply lower on Thursday in reaction to a mixed labor market report that raised the chances of another rate cut in July by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

According to the latest government statistics, Australia’s unemployment rate inched up in April, despite a big jump in new hires. The government said the economy added 28,400 jobs in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, well above the consensus estimate of 16.0K. The previous month was revised up to 43.1K. The unemployment rate reached 5.2%, matching the previous month. However, traders were looking for a reading of 5.1%.

At 07:16 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6910, down 0.0018 or -0.27%.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6899 will change the trend to down. The uptrend will resume on a trade through .7022.

The short-term range is .6864 to .7022. The AUD/USD is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at .6924 to .6943.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6912.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6912 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a labored short-covering rally with potential targets a short-term Fibonacci level at .6924 and a resistance cluster at .6942 to .6943. This Gann angle has been guiding the AUD/USD lower since June 7.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6912 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out .6899 will change the main trend to down with the next target angle coming in at .6888. This is the last potential support angle before the .6864 main bottom.

Overview

The interest rate cut pendulum swings back to the RBA following the disappointing jobs report. This should keep the downside pressure on the Aussie Dollar. Furthermore, the Fed is not expected to cut rates next week, but the RBA is likely to make another cut on July 2. According to the Federal Funds futures, there is about an 85% chance the Fed will cut rates in July.

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