AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 19, 2018 Forecast

The AUD/USD is under pressure early Tuesday, shortly before the release of the minutes from the June Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting at 0130 GMT. The minutes aren’t expected to reveal anything new. According to the latest futures data, the RBA is not expected to raise rates until late 2019 or early 2020.

Currently, the AUD/USD is being pressured by the divergence in monetary policy between the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish RBA. This divergence is making the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment. Investors are also nervous over lingering trade problems between the U.S. and China. This is forcing Aussie investors to take defensive positions.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down. This was reaffirmed early Tuesday when the AUD/USD reached its lowest level in a year. The Forex pair is in no position to change the main trend to up, but it is in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

If the downside momentum continues then look for the selling to possibly extend into the June 2, 2017 main bottom at .7372, followed by the May 9, 2017 main bottom at .7329.

Daily Technical Forecast

Now that the AUD/USD has already made a lower-low to extend the downtrend, the direction of the Forex pair the rest of the session will be determined by trader reaction to Monday’s close at .7422.

A sustained move under .7422 will indicate the presence of sellers. If the downside momentum continues, we could see a further break into .7372 and .7329.

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over .7422 will signal the return of buyers. This will put the AUD/USD in a position to form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

If a reversal bottom forms and is confirmed the next day, we could see the start of a 2 to 3 day countertrend rally into a downtrending Gann angle, currently at .7497.

Assume the downtrend will continue, given the bearish fundamentals, but be prepared for a closing price reversal bottom especially if the U.S. and China reach a trade agreement.