AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 20, 2019 ForecastBased on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6872. On the upside, sellers will be trying to form another secondary lower top. Buyers in the meantime will be trying to form a secondary higher bottom or a support base on any pullback.
The Australian Dollar is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday as investors adjusted their short-positions to the possibility of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in July. Gains could be limited, however, because the Reserve Bank of Australia could also cut its benchmark rate earlier in the same month. The Aussie is not stronger per se, the greenback is weaker.
At 06:39 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6903, up 0.0018 or +0.25%.
Opinions are all over the map as to what the Fed said or didn’t say. One analyst thinks a rate cut in July is a certainty, but he isn’t sure if the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points. Other analysts are saying the next cut will be data dependent and the Fed could take a July rate cut off the board if U.S. economy data like the jobs report shows improvement.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on June 18 at .6832.
The main trend will change to up on a trade through .7022. This is highly unlikely today, but there is room to rally into a short-term retracement zone. A trade through .6832 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The short-term range is .7022 to .6832. Its retracement zone at .6927 to .6949 is the first upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this zone.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6872.
A sustained move over .6872 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into the short-term 50% level at .6927, followed by the downtrending Gann angle at .6932. Look for sellers to return on the first test of this area.
A sustained move under .6872 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the uptrending Gann angle at .6852.
On the upside, sellers will be trying to form another secondary lower top. Buyers in the meantime will be trying to form a secondary higher bottom or a support base on any pullback.