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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar continues to push higher on Wednesday despite rising U.S. Treasury yields in the wake of somewhat hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday afternoon.

Prices are also being underpinned by comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe earlier in the week. Lowe suggested that the central bank may not be so aggressive in its rates cut after July.

He raised concerns about the impact of interest rates cuts on the global economy if all the major central banks are slashing rates. He said, “But if everyone is easing, there is no exchange-rate channel. We trade with one another, we don’t trade with Mars, so if everyone’s easing, the effect that we get from exchange-rate depreciation via the transmission mechanism isn’t there.

At 09:15 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6994, up 0.0032 or +0.45%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom at .6832 on June 18.

A trade through .7022 will change the main trend to up, but gains could be limited after this move because of retracement zone resistance. Taking out .6832 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is .7022 to .6832. Its retracement zone at .6949 to .6927 is support. Trading on the strong side of this zone will support the current upside bias.

The main range is .7206 to .6832. Its retracement zone at .7019 to .7063 is the next major upside target. Sellers could come in on a test of this zone.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6994, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term downtrending Gann angle at .6990.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6990 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the main 50% level at .7019 and the main top at .7022. Look for sellers on the first test of this area.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome .6990 and a sustained move under this angle could lead to a retest of the support cluster at .6957 to .6952.

Taking out .6952 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could spike the AUD/USD into the short-term 50% level at .6927.

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