AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 4, 2018 Forecast

The AUD/USD is spiking higher on Monday, shortly before the U.S. opening. The move is being fueled by better-than-forecast Australian retail sales data and an oversold market. Buyers could also be squeezing shorts out of the market ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision later this week.

Traders are also watching U.S. Treasury yields which could dip later in the session if global trade war fears escalate.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Today’s move through the previous swing top at .7606 reaffirmed the uptrend. It also made .7476 a new swing bottom.

The main range is .7812 to .7412. Its retracement zone at .7612 to .7659 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at .7648, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at .7652.

A sustained move under .7652 will indicate the return of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum, we could see a retest of the 50% level at .7612, followed closely by an uptrending Gann angle at .7592. This is angle is also a possible trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over .7652 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the main Fibonacci level at .7659.

Sellers could come in on the first test of .7659. Taking it out, however, could trigger an acceleration to the upside. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with the next two targets a downtrending Gann angle at .7732 and a major Fibonacci level at .7743.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at .7652 all session. Trader reaction to this angle will tell us if the buying is getting stronger, or if sellers are attempting to retake control.