AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 4, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading lower on Tuesday after an early surge failed to attract enough buyers to sustain the move. The Aussie popped shortly after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut. The move came as no surprise since the central bank had been telegraphing the rate cut for weeks. Futures traders had priced in a 100 percent likelihood of a cut at the June meeting with another cut expected by October.

At 09:35 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6976, down 0.0001 or -0.01%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The next main top is .7069. A trade through .6899 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. The next two minor trend targets are .7019 and .7048.

The short-term range is .7069 to .6864. Its retracement zone at .6966 to .6991 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone is likely to determine when the rally continues or a secondary lower top forms.

The main range is .7206 to .6864. If the rally continues through .6991 then its retracement zone at .7035 to .7075 will become the primary upside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6984.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6984 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is the Fibonacci level at .6991. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target the main 50% level at .7035 and a longer-term downtrending Gann angle at .7036.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6984 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the short-term 50% level at .6966. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at .6964.

Overview

Prices are likely to be influenced the most by the direction of U.S. Treasury yields. Lower yields could continue to weaken the U.S. Dollar. Higher rates will make the U.S. Dollar a more desirable asset.