AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Look for Return of Volatility after Month-long Consolidation

The Australian Dollar finished lower last week while remaining inside a three-week range. The longer-term fundamentals remain weak, however, position-squaring due to interest rate movement has helped hold the currency in a range.

Last week, the AUD/USD settled at .7402, down 0.0016 or -0.22%.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through .7310 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .7484 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is .7677 to .7310. Its 50% level or pivot at .7494 is the first upside target.

A major long-term range is .7159 to .8135. Its retracement zone at .7532 to .7647 is resistance.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The one-month range is .7310 to .7484. Its 50% level or pivot is .7397. Trader reaction to this level will set the tone of the week.

A sustained move over .7397 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers. If this move gains enough traction, the AUD/USD could rally into .7484, followed by .7494 and .7532.

Taking out .7532 could trigger an acceleration to the upside over the near-term with targets at .7647 to .7677. However, since the main trend is down, sellers may not even allow the Forex pair to come close to changing trend.

A sustained move under .7397 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the AUD/USD back to the minor bottom at .7318 and the main bottom at .7310. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with .7159 the next major target.